Section 3

Section 3


Bearish Reversal System Case Studies


This is the system that I played most, the holding period is shorter and
the profits are quicker. However, since the returns are greater and so
are the risks because it involved the purchase of a straight put which
is exposed to Time Decay and the Implied Volatility of the option.
You must enforce strict risk management rules to protect and to
preserve your capital as top priority.

I have been using and have taught my students to use conditional
orders to minimize trading emotions and not to miss out on any
trading opportunities that are available.

Conditional orders reduces emotional trading

A conditional order is a type of order that will be submitted or canceled
if set criteria are met, which are set by the trader before entering the
order. There is no doubt that emotions can be your worst enemy when
you trade. Conditional order can help to reduce stress and emotions
while trading.

Buying a straight Put Option is the best strategy as the Implied

Buying a straight Put Option is the best strategy as the Implied
Volatility is usually relatively low and since it is very short term, time
decay is not going to affect much. As this is going to be a short play
and the maximum holding period is two weeks and the target is about
50% to 100% profit on the put options.

Bearish Reversal candlesticks are found almost every time when you
look at a chart. Remember what goes up must come down, even the
most bullish in the world. They can also be seen repeating quite
frequently in the same chart. All you have to do is to be observant
enough to spot them early. Trading them with Put options can be very




profitable. Remember not to be greedy, get out at the first exit signal.
Money in your pocket is always better than in the markets.
It Pays To Be Contrary.


“As a general rule, it is foolish to do just what other people are
doing, because there are almost sure to be too many people
doing the same thing” -William Stanley Jeons

Wait for the entry signal

Wait for the entry signal

When the price is 0.10 below the low of the reversal candlestick bar, it
is your entry signal. Remember, you are not making the entry
decision, the stock is making it for you and all you need to do is to act
on it. If the price does not drop but goes up instead, it will be a “no
go”. This is supposed to be mechanical and no emotions are involved.
Use a conditional order to automate the trigger to purchase so you
don’t have to wait all night. (Malaysia and Singapore trading hours, 12
to 13 hrs difference)

The Put option strategy

AMGEN INC. has been spotted a reversal candlestick bar formation and
has fulfilled all the conditions as stated earlier. The stock price is 0.10
below the low of the reversal candlestick bar and you are ready to
enter.

Mean Recommendation

6. Mean Recommendation -Moderate Buy to Strong Buy.
Setting up for the play

Once a reversal candlestick is being spotted and the conditions are
also fulfilled, you will need to do is to wait for the entry signal. It may
be the next day or two to three days later, the moment you see the
price is below the low of the reversal candlestick bar. It is your entry
signal for this reversal system play.
Below is the illustration for qualifying and the entry to buy.


AMGEN INC, reversal candlestick chart.

When the stock underperforms.

1. When the stock underperforms.
2. When the company or the management underperforms.
3. Any negative news related to the company or management or
products or even the same related industry itself.
4. Analyst Downgrade, you only need one analyst to make that
statement.
Short listing of reversal stocks

The selection of stocks is important step and must fulfill certain criteria
before we even consider trading the stock. Strict rules of enforcement
must be of top priority in achieving a high probability trade.

1. There must be a significant decrease in the stock’s price during
the last trading day – this will form a bearish candlestick in the
chart.
2. The Market Capitalization of the stock should be above
50,000,000 – this indicates the liquidity of the stock.
3. The Last Volume traded should be above 1,000,000 – this
indicates the demand of the stock.
4. The Rating of the stock should be high – this indicates the high
Analysts expectation of the stock.
5. Last closing price must be above US$20.00 – sufficient amount
for it to drop.

Amgen Inc. high analyst ratings

Amgen Inc. high analyst ratings

Going against the crowd

When riding a trend, you are asked to follow the crowd. Now you are
to go against them. By looking at Amgen Inc, you can analyze the
logic for going against them. Understanding the mechanics before
placing your money on the table is going to prepare you from making
unnecessary mistakes and be observant as which stock you should
choose to trade.




High Stock Ratings and High Analyst Rating

Investors will naturally have high expatiations on the particular stock
or company. The stock price will start to tumble down under the
following conditions:

The art of contrary thinking

The art of contrary thinking

Sometimes it pays to be contrary. That is thinking differently from the
investing crowd. When the crowd thinks the stock is bullish usually not
many will pay attention to the Put Options and therefore it is usually
cheap at least before everyone starts to buy Puts to hedge against
their stock. Identifying the bearish reversal signal early is of utmost
importance as stocks go down faster. “The Bull climbs the stairs but
the Bear usually jumps off the window”.


Amgen Inc. high stock ratings

EGGS LOUISIANA

EGGS LOUISIANA
Make a half pint of tomato sauce, toast a sufficient quantity of
bread, butter the bread and put on each slice a poached egg; cover
with the tomato sauce.

EGGS PRESCOURT and EGGS COURTLAND

EGGS PRESCOURT
Toast slices of bread, put thin slices of chicken on each, on top of
this a poached egg, cover with sauce Bernaise, and serve at once.

EGGS COURTLAND
Mince sufficient cold chicken to make a half cupful. Make a half pint
of cream sauce, add the minced chicken, a half teaspoonful of salt and
a dash of red pepper. Toast a sufficient quantity of bread, put it on
a heated platter, pour over a small quantity of the minced chicken and
cream sauce, put on each a poached egg, cover with the remaining
sauce, dust with parsley and serve with a garnish of green peas.

EGGS NORWEGIAN

EGGS NORWEGIAN
Cover rounds of toasted bread first with butter and then with anchovy
paste, put on top of each a poached egg, pour over anchovy sauce, and
send at once to the table.

EGGS MIRABEAU

EGGS MIRABEAU
Cut a sufficient number of rounds of bread, toast them carefully and
cover them with _pate de foie gras_, put on top of each a poached egg,
pour over sauce Perigueux, and send to the table.